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London's super-prime property market is typically quiet in the first months of the year, but not this quiet. 

There were 34 US$10 million-plus deals in Q1, amounting to US$0.59 billion in value, according to 博鱼体育集团 Frank's report. That deal count is down by about a third compared to the same period a year earlier.

We generally see a lull after the year-end rush, but these figures underscore how negatively the government's reforms to the "non-dom" regime have been received by an internationally mobile group of affluent individuals. Enough time has passed to know that the changes 鈥� particularly the decision to charge 40% inheritance tax on overseas assets 鈥� will be both costly for the taxpayer and damaging to London's reputation as Europe's primary business hub. 

The penny appears to have dropped in Downing Street. The inheritance tax issue is the element of the reforms that "is causing most heartburn," a Treasury official yesterday. Another official "confirmed the Treasury would change the inheritance tax regime for non-doms if it was found to be good for Britain鈥檚 international competitiveness," the report said. The department is reviewing the decision.

Wealth creation

The global super-prime market has plenty of momentum. Buyers acquired 527 properties in the first quarter, a 6% increase on the 498 deals recorded in Q1 2024. The value of those transactions reached US$9.43 billion, also up 6% from US$8.85 billion a year earlier.

Top performers in Q1 included Dubai (111 deals, US$1.90 billion), New York (75 deals, US$1.41 billion), Palm Beach (74 deals, US$1.35 billion) and Miami (58 deals, US$1.29 billion). On an annual-value basis, Dubai again topped the leaderboard with US$7.08 billion in sales, followed by New York (US$5.10 billion) and Hong Kong (US$4.52 billion).

Key drivers remain a mix of wealth creation dynamics and regional push and pull factors. Dubai鈥檚 low tax environment continues to draw global capital. Miami and Palm Beach benefit from lifestyle migration and portfolio diversification away from more regulated markets. Hong Kong鈥檚 post-pandemic reopening has unlocked pent-up demand.

Oil prices

The UK's annual rate of inflation dipped to 3.4% in May, down from 3.5% a month earlier, according to official published this morning. Core CPI, which excludes volatile elements like food and fuel, eased to 3.5%, from 3.8%. Services CPI, a key source of concern at the Bank of England, eased back to 4.7%, from 5.4%. 

This is all with Bank of England forecasts and will do little to shift consensus that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote to hold the base rate at 4.25% tomorrow. The next cut is likely to arrive in August. 

While domestic indicators have swung in favour of continued easing 鈥� April's GDP figures were 鈥� the global outlook remains volatile. Trade policy could shift significantly in the weeks ahead, and the conflict between Israel and Iran could yet escalate 鈥� most of this morning's lead on President Donald Trump's demands for Iran's "unconditional surrender". 

I wrote about the prospect that an oil price shock could nudge up inflation and mortgage rates across western economies. That now looks a more remote possibility 鈥� The International Energy Agency reckons oil production will substantially outstrip demand this year, in part due to waning demand in the US and China. The group forecasts this imbalance will continue for the next five years.

That said, the agency did note that the Iran-Israel conflict does pose 鈥済eopolitical risks to oil supply security鈥�, according to , but added that there had been 鈥渘o impact on Iranian oil flows at the time of writing鈥�.

Finding buyers

UK home sellers are increasingly trimming expectations to compete in a crowded marketplace.

The average asking price of a UK home slipped by 0.3% to £378,240 in June 鈥� an unusual dip for the time of year, Rightmove on Monday. The higher end of the market was particularly affected, with southern regions and London posting the steepest falls. 

Buyer demand is now 3% ahead of this time last year, while the number of homes coming to market is 11% ahead 鈥� supply is now at its highest level for a decade, the group said. We saw similar themes in last week's RICS Residential Market Survey; the metric for new sales instructions has now been positive for eleven consecutive months. 

May recorded the highest number of sales agreed since March 2022 鈥� a sign that competitively priced, well-presented homes are finding buyers quickly. 

In other news...

Howard Lutnick hails Donald Trump鈥檚 $5mn investor visa as almost 70,000 apply (), Morgan Sindall boosted by surge in office revamps (), and finally, HSBC considers ordering all staff back to office 3 days a week ().