Leading Indicators - UK financial markets show resilience against global turmoil
Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. For in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.
03 June 2025
UK financial market volatility eases鈥� a relative safe-haven amid rising global risk?
Over the past month, the UK Systemic Stress Index, a key measure of financial stress, has fallen by -86%. Over that same period, the Global Geopolitical Risk Index has surged +106%, driven in part by renewed tensions following recent US legislation reinstating Trump-era tariffs.
Meanwhile, UK aims to boost private market investment by pension funds
17 of the UK鈥檚 largest pension providers have pledged to allocate at least 5% of their defined contribution (DC) default funds to UK private assets by 2030, under the Mansion House Compact. This commitment is expected to unlock up to £50 billion in investment, directing capital into local startups, infrastructure, and potentially commercial real estate.
And UK Shopping Centres set to outperform over the next few years鈥�
In the latest IPF survey, the 2025 All Property total return forecast has seen a slight downgrade by -60bps to 8.2%. Between 2025-2029, Shopping Centres is expected to be the best performing sector with a total return of 8.5% pa (per annum).
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