博鱼体育集团

The imposition of Donald Trump鈥檚 tariff policies has raised both economic uncertainty and volatility across the world. Although the most punishing levies have been postponed for all but China, a blanket 10% tariff remains a significant increase for those countries affected. And while welcome, many will take a wary view of the 90-day respite period, given the speed at which US decision-making is evolving.

A more fundamental question is whether the postponement of tariffs is enough to reverse any mitigating strategies devised by corporates or investors. Our view is that while stock markets may rally, uncertainty will linger. The current situation is clearly fluid, and highly nuanced, both with regards to geography and real estate sector. For a more detailed view, do not hesitate to contact our research team.

SHORT TERM IMPLICATIONS

Real estate as a safety play. Financial market volatility drives a search for safe havens, in which real estate 鈥� direct, indirect, commercial and residential - can play a role.

Lower rates likely, but not yet a given. Money markets believe weaker economic growth and recessionary fears make the case for interest rate cuts, but the inflationary effects of tariffs could still tie the hands of central bankers.
Occupiers need time to assess. Boardroom decisions on real estate will be tactical, prioritising flexibility at this stage. Longer term/strategic decisions will be put on hold

Don鈥檛 ignore the detail. While the Americas appear to be less impacted than APAC countries, intra-regional differences are key.

Housing markets: a mix of pressures. Disruption and potentially inflation in global supply chains could slow housebuilders. Conversely, if money markets prove correct, lower rates will support mortgage affordability.

Key global cities in favour. With wealth more globally mobile than ever, some UHNWIs may look to Europe鈥檚 established markets that offer a range of soft factors including good governance, the rule of law, security, privacy, market transparency, relatively low purchase costs and good international schools

LONGER TERM IMPLICATIONS

The next 3 years: global economic rebalancing or fragmented recession?

Scenario A: Controlled Rebalancing

• Trade blocs form: North American regionalism, EU strategic autonomy, China鈥檚 Belt and Road 2.0, and a contested Global South.
• Businesses adapt with mirrored production and logistics networks across blocs. Inflation stabilises, but structural costs remain higher than pre-2016.

Scenario B: Trade War Escalation and Global Recession

• China and the EU retaliate forcefully. Export-led economies suffer sharp slowdowns.
• Cross-border capital flows decline. Commodity markets destabilise.
• China reorientates towards European markets.