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Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics.

for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more with a focus on Europe.

UK wage growth accelerates, unemployment remains steady

The UK unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in the final quarter of 2024. Private sector wage growth, a metric closely monitored by the Bank of England (BoE), accelerated to 6.2%, though it remained just below the BoE鈥檚 6.3% forecast. Average earnings (excluding bonuses) climbed to 5.9%, up from 5.6%, in line with market expectations.

Elevated price pressures

UK inflation is expected to rise to a ten-month high of 2.8% tomorrow, up from 2.5%, driven by renewed price pressures. Whilst services inflation is anticipated to increase this year, the BoE expects this rise to be temporary. Meanwhile, money markets are currently factoring in two quarter-point rate cuts for 2025.

Swap rates trending down - and diverging?

The UK 5-year SONIA swap rate currently stands at 3.94%, down -16bps over the month. A growing divergence between US and UK swap rates could draw more US capital to the UK, as investors seek to capitalise on more favourable conditions

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