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The endemic

We are 鈥渨itnessing the transition of the virus from pandemic to endemic," the UK's education secretary told . The Spanish PM those sentiments on Monday. The Telegraph this morning covers comments from Wellcome Trust chief investment officer Nick Moakes, who says restrictions are no longer economically justified and "we are heading towards a situation where it is becoming endemic". The Wellcome Trust is the UK's biggest independent funder of medical research.

These are influential voices but experts are split on the issue. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes more than half of the European population could be infected with Omicron within the next two months and as a result we are "a way off" calling it endemic. Catherine Smallwood, senior emergencies officer at WHO Europe there must be 鈥渟table circulation of the virus at predictable levels and potentially known and predictable waves of epidemic transmission鈥� before Covid could be treated as endemic.

Hospital admissions are now falling in London and have stopped rising in most of England. Professor David Heymann of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that Britain鈥檚 very high levels of immunity seem to be 鈥渒eeping the virus at bay鈥�. He predicts that Britain will be one of the first countries in the world to emerge from the pandemic.

The next crisis

We don't want to be accused of keeping things too light, so what about the next crisis? Every year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) produces a Global Risks report based on the views of 1,000 risk experts and global leaders in business, government and civil society.

has a clear theme. Climate action failure, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse were considered the top global risks by severity over the next 10 years. Some 77% of respondents said international efforts to mitigate climate change have 鈥渘ot started鈥� or are in 鈥渆arly development鈥�.

The divergence in fortunes between advanced and developing economies is the next big theme. By 2024 developing economies (except China) will have fallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9%. That's why societal risks make up a third of the top 10 risks, with societal cohesion erosion and livelihood crises completing the top five, while infectious diseases come in at number six.

Growth slows

Several of these themes dominate the World Bank's updated outlook, which suggests the global recovery is set to decelerate amid continued Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply bottlenecks. The organisation for global growth to 4.1% in 2022 from 5.5% last year, with growth slowing to 3.2% by 2023.

Again, climate change is cited as a downside risk, largely due to its likelihood of increasing commodity price volatility. Meanwhile, some countries may eventually require debt restructuring and the Bank warns that social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic.

The report forecasts growth in advanced economies declining to 3.8% in 2022 from 5% in 2021, and dropping further to 2.3% in 2023, but said their output and investment would still return to their pre-pandemic trend by 2023.

The income squeeze

The inflation-driven cost of living squeeze is now showing up in various sentiment surveys. The latest from Scottish Widows, , reveals UK households鈥� perceptions of their financial wellbeing declined at the fastest rate since the start of the pandemic.

The survey adds to a growing body of evidence that cash piles built up over the course of the pandemic are being unwound. Some 14% reported their household earnings declined in the last month, leading to the steepest drop in cash availability in almost eight years.

Bank of England data published last week revealed household borrowing increased in November for the first time since the onset of the pandemic as consumers borrowed an extra £900 million on credit cards. The amount flowing into National Savings and Investment Accounts fell to a net £4.7 billion, down from an average of £11.2 billion during the twelve months to October 2021.

In other news...

The architecture of tomorrow to cool the planet (Bloomberg), is coming (Bloomberg), rising house prices and loans (Times), Gove鈥檚 attempt to fix UK cladding crisis looks set to end up (FT), monetary policy widens between poor and rich economies (FT), and finally, UK recruiter warns of wage inflation during for staff (FT).