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The year 2020 will be remembered for precipitous falls in output and movement as around half the world was plunged into lockdown.

As of January, activity and hours spent in retail & recreation locations remained 35% below baseline, suggesting we are about half way back to normality from the almost 60% drop off in April 2020.

Despite these stark figures the recovery has surprised on the upside as the world successfully adjusted to the 鈥榥ew normal鈥�. for by 0.3% to 5.5%, adding that the improved outlook reflected 鈥渆xpectations of a vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year and additional policy support in a few large economies.鈥� Meanwhile, almost 83 million vaccines have been administered globally as of Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.

There are more reasons to be optimistic. Late last year the , according to new data published this week. Even with renewed lockdowns, trade will continue to grow in 2021, according to surveys by IHS Markit. China was the main beneficiary with a growth in exports and is the only major global economy to avoid a contraction in GDP last year, with economic output climbing 2.3%.

Unemployment has also surprised on the upside. Data from the suggests 8.8% of global working hours were lost in 2020 compared to a year earlier - equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. Granted, those are large numbers, however the organisation noted those working hours were largely lost to inactivity, rather than joblessness 鈥� due in large part to furlough schemes put in place globally.

The UK鈥檚 unemployment rate was 5% in November up from 3.9% before the pandemic. Whilst it is accepted that joblessness is likely to rise further, Oxford Economics forecast that the rate should peak at 6.5%, modest against what was predicted in the early days, largely due to the furlough scheme.

There are even more potential upsides to economic buoyancy. The IMF adds that 鈥渇urther favourable news on vaccine manufacture (including on those underdevelopment in emerging market economies), distribution, and effectiveness of therapies鈥� could lead to an additional 0.7% growth in global GDP across 2021. With this in mind we鈥檙e already seeing predictions of an incoming roaring twenties 鈥� . Much remains uncertain, however with each jab in the arm, the path out of the pandemic looks clearer.