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Preamble - Residential Market Sentiment Survey

With a third national lockdown securely in place, we have launched a new survey to explore how the pandemic has shaped your attitude to the housing market.

We would like to hear from you about what you are looking for from a home, if this has changed and what impact the current situation is having on your plans for the next 12 months. Survey .

The path out of the pandemic

The International Monetary Fund yesterday pushed up for global growth this year to 5.5%, reflecting expectations of a "vaccine-powered strengthening of activity" later in the year and additional policy support from a few large economies.

The strength of the recovery is projected to vary significantly across countries, depending on access to medical interventions, effectiveness of policy support and exposure to viral spillovers from neighbouring countries. In nations with access to vaccines, the organisation expects the softening we've seen in early 2021 to give way to more positive momentum in the second quarter, while the virus is expected to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022.

Major central banks are assumed to maintain their current policy rate settings throughout the forecast horizon to the end of 2022 and as a result, financial conditions are expected to remain broadly at current levels for advanced economies.

Keeping score

The full IMF enables us to keep score as to when economies are likely to reach their pre-pandemic size - Bloomberg has charted it neatly . Both the US and Japan are projected to regain pre-pandemic activity levels in the second half of 2021, while the UK and euro area are expected to remain well below that milestone into 2022.

The 2% upward revision in the outlook for the US relative to the IMF October projection was largely reflective of the stimulus package signed in December. China's economy is expected to grow 8.1% this year following effective containment measures, and the IMF India revised up India's outlook for the year to growth of 11.5%, reflecting carryover from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased.

What's at stake

The between the European Union and AstraZeneca reflect the importance of an efficient roll out of the vaccines.

Put simply, mass vaccination appears to be the only way out of the crisis for western nations and any delay in the process will slow the path of recovery, with all of the long-term knock-on effects that entails. The from the Israeli stock market points to the potential economic upside from a successful campaign.

Meanwhile, the UK 20,089 new cases yesterday, down from a peak of 68,053 on January 8.

Ports chaos

Earlier this month, we talked about growing pressure on the suppliers and contractors as developers restart projects delayed earlier in 2020, but also because managers are bringing forward purchases of supplies due to fears of longer lead times. Anna Ward covered how all this is impacting London's housing supply last week.

The Builders Merchants Federation yesterday warned of of construction products, including roofing and timber materials. It's members, who make up about £38 billion of the construction industry supply chain, reports timber prices are surging by an average of 20 per cent.

The anecdotes on that press release point to chaos at UK ports, including a shortage of containers, ships mothballed with their containers and crew, and carriers reluctant to take bookings for the UK due to congestion.

Future of work, continued

The heads of the world's largest banks have on how remote working is progressing at a virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum. Common themes are emerging, with executives broadly praising the set up over shorter periods, while stating it is increasingly weighing on collaboration and culture over the longer term.

Adding to the debate over how all the pandemic is likely to be reflected in the design of the office, the New Yorker has charting the path from cubicles, to open plan, to the pursuit of a handful of companies to find a successful middle ground.

In other news...

A of the finest country homes, UK unemployment hits a , dreams of creating a Singapore-on-Thames derided , Crest Nicholson furlough cash, UK retailers report annual price falls since May, and finally, Sunak seeks financial services ties with Switzerland.